愈窮愈要賭

我以往不明白「愈窮愈要賭」的心理是甚麼一回事， 最近終於體會了。

呢排股市跌， 樓價跌， 身家縮水了很多， 再加上呢排返工壓力又大左， 腦海裏忽然有股想發橫財o既念頭， 好想中六合彩， 中左就發達唔洗撈。 事實上， 我呢排買六合彩買得勤力左。

跟住我就開始明白， 原來人類腦裏天生安裝了一個程式， 愈窮就愈希望摶大d去翻身。 (loss adversion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion) “…. people strongly prefer risks that might possibly mitigate a loss (called risk seeking behavior)”

我跟住諗， 如果一個人去到到一窮二白， 佢可能真係會有股充動借錢過大海希望可以一鋪翻身。 所以有d人話「財不入急門」係啱o既，往往這麼一賭不單不能翻身，還會迫自己走投無路！

Loss aversion was first convincingly demonstrated by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.

"Kahnemann and Tversky also found strong evidence of what they referred to as the reflection effect. To illustrate:

Imagine an Allais Paradox-type problem, framed in the following way. You must choose between one of the two gambles, or prospects:

Gamble A: A 100% chance of losing $3000.
Gamble B: An 80% chance of losing $4000, and a 20% chance of losing nothing.

Next, you must choose between:

Gamble C: A 100% chance of receiving $3000.
Gamble D: An 80% chance of receiving $4000, and a 20% chance of receiving nothing.

Kahnemann and Tversky found that 20% of people chose D, while 92% chose B. A similar pattern held for varying positive and negative prizes, and probabilities. This led them to conclude that when decision problems involve not just possible gains, but also possible losses, people's preferences over negative prospects are more often than not a mirror image of their preferences over positive prospects. Simply put - while they are risk-averse over prospects involving gains, people become risk-loving over prospects involving losses. "